What is stress testing?
We need to make sure banks, insurance companies and central counterparties are strong enough to withstand another financial crisis. So we set them ‘stress tests’ to find out if they are prepared for the worst.
A video about Stress-testing.
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Hi my name is Noor and I work at the Bank of England. Here at the Bank of England, we need to keep an eye on how banks would cope with difficult economic situations. We do this by stress testing banks, against various hypothetical scenarios. The Bank of England then ensures that should these situations occur, banks hold sufficient capital to meet unexpected losses.
From 2016, we will use two ‘what if’ scenarios to test banks. The first will be a yearly test of shock scenarios of different levels of severity, based on the UK current economic cycle. The annual cyclical scenario could include falls in output or house prices or increases in interest rates or unemployment. The second will be an exploratory scenario every two years. This scenario will look at risks that are unlikely to happen but are still a concern, for example what might happen if a large bank fails. Banks have always been required to hold a minimum amount of capital to absorb losses, but from 2016 how the Bank of England looks at stress test performance is changing. With larger and more risky banks needing to carry more loss absorbing capital.
Should a bank not perform satisfactorily, the Bank of England has a range of powers, such as requiring the bank to take action to strengthen its capital position within a certain period of time.
Stress testing: banks and building societies
Banking stress tests assess how banks can cope with severe economic scenarios. We look at banks’ resilience, making sure they have enough capital to withstand extreme shocks and are able to support the economy.
The 2024 desk-based stress test
We published the scenarios we will be using for the 2024 desk-based stress test on 27 June 2024. This exercise will not require submissions from banks.
- Stress testing the UK banking system: scenarios for the 2024 desk-based stress test
- Stress testing the UK banking system: variable paths for the scenarios for the 2024 desk-based stress test (pdf)
2022/23 Annual Cyclical Scenario exercise
We published the results of the 2022/23 stress test of the UK banking system on 12 July 2023.
- Stress testing the UK banking system: 2022/23 results
- The results of the 2022/23 ACS stress test of the UK banking system: Annex (PDF 0.4MB)
- Stress testing the UK banking system: key elements of the 2022/23 annual cyclical scenario
- Stress testing the UK banking system: Variable paths for the 2022/23 scenarios (XLSX 0.3MB)
- Stress testing the UK banking system: Traded risk scenario for the 2022/23 stress test (XLSX 0.1MB)
- Stress testing the UK banking system: Guidance on the 2022/23 stress test for participants
- Financial Stability Report - July 2023
Data templates, manual and dictionary for the annual concurrent stress test 2022
The Bank publishes concurrent stress test data requests to participating firms, for submission in Excel. These Excel templates, manual and dictionary are for data submissions by firms for the 2022 Concurrent Stress test, and are all part of the Stress Test Data Framework (STDF).
This contains:
- an overview of the Stress Test Data Framework;
- detailed information on the purpose and content of all templates; and
- guidance on the data submission and data quality assurance process (which used to be published within the Operating Model for Reporting of Stress Test data).
This includes all relevant reporting information for the STDF templates including Definitions, Enumerations, Validations (which used to be within 030 Validations), Patterns and Reconciliations. It also contains information on how the templates fit together (which used to be published in the Operating Model for Reporting of Stress Test data).
How to use our stress scenario
You should consider the relevance of our stress test scenarios in the context of your business and its own risks.
You should use our scenario as a starting point to design adequately severe scenarios for your firm under Pillar 2. We know any single scenario which is designed for firms with different business models and risks, has its limits. We expect you to choose a scenario that provides a strong challenge for your business.
You are responsible for developing your own scenarios to test your firm's resilience. Large banks and building societies should use the annual cyclical scenario.
Firms who are subject to IFRS 9 should consider the following clarifications covering the expected approach to IFRS 9 within ICAAPs.
Historical guidance
Scenarios for banks and building societies not part of concurrent stress testing
The PRA published two stress test scenarios on 27 June 2024 for use by banks and building societies that are not part of concurrent stress testing. These scenarios are the same as those that will be used in the 2024 desk-based stress test of the banking system, as represented by the major UK banks and building societies, which the Bank also published on the 27 June 2024. The scenarios serve as a template and severity benchmark for firms to support their own internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) stress testing scenario design processes and can be found below:
By publishing two differing scenarios, our aim is to encourage firms to consider the type, characteristics and severity of stress that their business model is vulnerable to, when designing their own stress testing scenario (or scenarios).
The stresses applied under the scenarios are not a forecast of macroeconomic and financial conditions in the UK, or a set of events that are expected, or likely, to materialise. Rather, as per previous scenarios, they are coherent ‘tail risk’ scenarios designed to be severe and broad enough to assess the resilience of UK banks to a range of adverse shocks.
The results of stress tests are an important consideration for when we decide how to set capital requirements for banks and building societies.
You can find guidance on the role of stress testing within the framework for setting banks’ capital requirements in our Supervisory Statement on the ICAAP and the supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP).
How our scenarios should be used
You should consider the stress test scenarios in the context of your business and its own specific risk drivers. Our scenarios should be used as a starting point to build and accurately measure your own scenario under Pillar 2. We know any single scenario that is designed for firms with very different business models and risks, has its limits. We expect you to choose a scenario that provides a strong challenge for your business.
You are ultimately responsible for developing your own scenarios to test your firm’s resilience.
Biennial exploratory scenario
Since 2017, we have also run a second type of concurrent stress test known as the ‘biennial exploratory scenario’ (BES). Its focus changes from exercise to exercise, and is designed to explore risks facing banks not covered by the annual bank solvency focused test. Previous tests have covered risks from persistently low interest rates and liquidity risks.
Results of the 2021 Biennial Exploratory Scenario: Financial risks from climate change
We published the results of the 2021 Biennial Exploratory Scenario: Financial risks from climate change on Tuesday 24 May 2022.
The Bank of England (the Bank) has run its first exploratory scenario exercise on climate risk involving the largest UK banks and insurers. Launched in June 2021, the exercise was carried out under the Bank’s stress testing framework, in which biennial exploratory scenarios such as this one are run alongside annual solvency bank stress tests, and periodic stress tests for insurance firms
The 2021 Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) explored the resilience of the UK financial system to the transition and physical risks associated with different climate pathways. The CBES used three scenarios involving early, late and no additional policy action, respectively, to explore the two key risks from climate change; the risks arising from the significant structural changes to the economy needed to achieve net zero emissions – ‘transition risks’; and risks associated with an increase in global temperatures known as ‘physical risks’.
- Results of the 2021 Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario
- Climate Capital − speech by Sam Woods
- Key Elements of the 2021 Biennial Exploratory Scenario: Financial risks from climate change
The 2019 Liquidity Biennial Exploratory Scenario
The Bank has published some of the key findings from the 2019 Liquidity BES (Financial Policy Summary and Record - March 2021).
Stress testing: insurers
Insurers should develop, implement and action an effective stress testing programme. Stress testing should assess their ability to meet capital and liquidity requirements in stressed conditions, as a key component of effective risk management. All firms should undertake relevant analysis, equal to the nature, scale and complexity of their business.
The PRA also expects insurance firms to apply reverse stress testing as part of their own risk and solvency assessment (ORSA) process, to continuously assess their overall solvency needs for their insurance specific risk profile.
Insurance stress test (IST)
The PRA also runs its own stress tests on a periodic basis for a number of insurance firms.
These exercises assess the financial resilience of the life and general insurance sector in severe but plausible common scenarios, tailored to the vulnerabilities of the sector. The participants for the exercises are selected on the basis of expected significant exposure to one or more of the proposed scenarios.
LIST 2025
The PRA will run the next life insurance stress test in 2025.
- Life Insurance Stress Test 2025 request for technical input cover letter to firms (pdf)
- Approach to Life Insurance Stress Test 2025 (pdf)
DyGIST 2025
The PRA will run the next general insurance stress test in 2025.
IST 2022
Stress testing - Insurers
On Monday 23 January 2023, we published the Insurance Stress Test 2022 letter. This letter sets out our findings on sector resilience and provides thematic observations that support improvements in risk management.
Stress testing: central counterparties (CCPs)
CCPs enable the clearing of financial transactions, acting to guarantee that a transaction will be honoured if a party defaults on a trade. The Bank supervises CCPs because of their importance to the smooth functioning of the financial system and wider economy.
International standards and UK legislation set firm expectations and requirements that UK CCPs perform daily stress testing to size, and assess the sufficiency of, financial resources from both a credit and liquidity perspective. The Bank also intends to conduct regulatory supervisory stress tests of CCPs as part of its ongoing supervision and regulation of financial market infrastructures (FMIs).
On 21 June 2021, the Bank published a Discussion Paper on Supervisory Stress Testing of Central Counterparties. This set out the Bank’s intention to develop and publish a regime for CCP supervisory stress testing in the UK, and sought feedback on the design of such a regime. This Discussion Paper explained that the Bank intends to use CCP supervisory stress testing as a key mechanism through which to undertake assessments of the resilience of individual CCPs, and assessments of the broader resilience of the clearing network and its interactions with the rest of the financial system.
On 19 October 2021, the Bank launched its first public supervisory stress test of UK CCPs. This exercise assessed the credit and liquidity resilience of the UK CCPs under a severe market stress scenario and the simultaneous default of selected clearing member groups. The 2021–22 CCP supervisory stress test was exploratory in nature, aiming to identify potential vulnerabilities or gaps in resilience, rather than testing CCPs against a pass-fail threshold. The Bank published the results of 2021–22 CCP supervisory stress test on 13 October 2022.
- Bank of England launches first public CCP supervisory stress test
- Results of the Bank of England 2021–22 central counterparty supervisory stress test published
- 2021–22 CCP Supervisory Stress Test: results report
In March 2023, the Bank launched its 2023 CCP Supervisory Stress Test. As part of the launch of this exercise, the Bank published a Key Elements document setting out the details of the exercise. The Key Elements document included details on the participants of the exercise, its objectives, analytical components, and the market stress scenarios. In November 2023, the Bank published the results report for its second CCP Supervisory Stress Test exercise.
Cyber stress test
Information on the cyber stress test being conducted in 2022 can be found in the Financial Policy Summary and Record - March 2021.
On 29 March 2023, we published the thematic findings from the 2022 cyber stress test. The findings support individual and collective work to improve the financial sector’s response to and recovery from incidents.
Stress testing updates
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IST 2022
On Monday 23 January 2023, the PRA published the Insurance Stress Test 2022 letter. This letter sets out our findings on sector resilience and provides thematic observations that support improvements in risk management.
Insurance Stress Test 2022 scenario specifications, guidelines and instructions data templates, and requirements for the Results and Basis of Preparation report
- Life Insurance Stress Test 2022 - Scenario Specification, Guidelines and Instructions Final (pdf)
- Life Insurance Stress Test 2022 V2.0 - Template (pdf)
- General Insurance Stress Test 2022 - Scenario Specification, Guidelines and Instructions Final V2 (pdf)
- General Insurance Stress Test 2022 V2.0 - Template(pdf)
- Requirements for the "Results and Basis of Preparation" report (pdf)
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Data templates and dictionary for the 2021 Solvency Stress Testing
We publish Solvency Stress Test data requests to participating firms, for submission in Excel. These Excel templates and dictionary are for data submissions by firms subject to the 2021 Solvency Stress Test.
A summary of the Bank of England 2021 Solvency Stress Test data request, an overview of the main changes since the previous version, and the operating model for the reporting of stress test data by participating firms can be found below:
The asset liability management template below is not submitted as part of the concurrent stress test, but feeds into our stress test analysis.
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XBRL taxonomy for the 2020 Concurrent Stress Testing exercise
The link below contains the final version of the XBRL taxonomy, annotated templates and dictionary for the 2020 Concurrent Stress Testing exercise.
18 September 2020: Jointly with the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority, Competition & Markets Authority, Payment Systems Regulator, Information Commissioner’s Office, Pensions Regulator, and HM Treasury (as observer member), we published an updated version of the Regulatory Initiatives Forum’s grid Opens in a new window – a consolidated plan of initiatives that the authorities consider will, or may, have significant operational impact on firms across the next 24 months.
17 June 2020: We published a letter to participating general and life insurance firms on feedback for general and life insurers from the 2019 Insurance Stress Test.
7 May 2020: Jointly with the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority, Competition & Markets Authority, Payment Systems Regulator and HM Treasury (as observer member), we published the Regulatory Initiatives Forum’s first grid Opens in a new window – a consolidated plan of initiatives that the authorities consider will, or may, have significant operational impact on firms across the next 12 months.
7 May 2020: We published a statement announcing further details of our plans to support firms we regulate and enable them to focus resources on the highest priority work in light of Covid-19
20 March 2020: We announced the cancellation of our 2020 annual stress test and amendments to the biennial exploratory scenario timetable.
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19 June 2019
On Wednesday 17 June 2020 the PRA published feedback for general and life insurers from the 2019 Insurance Stress Test.
18 June 2019
On 18 June 2019 the PRA published a letter and accompanying materials on the Insurance Stress Test 2019 which asks the largest regulated life and general insurers to provide information about the impact of a range of stress tests on their business. In addition, the stress test includes an exploratory exercise in relation to cyber underwriting and climate change. The set of climate scenarios explores the impacts to both firms' liabilities and investments stemming from physical and transition risks. The PRA will publish a summary of the overall results but no individual firm results will be made public. The deadline for submission is as follows:
- Sections A and B: 5pm, Monday 30 September 2019
- Section C: 5pm, Thursday 31 October 2019
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December 2018
On 14 December EIOPA published its results report of the insurance stress test exercise. More information on the stress tests and timescales can be found on EIOPA's website.
July 2018
Systemic Risk Buffers and Pillar 2A in stress test hurdle rates. In ‘Key elements of the 2018 stress test’ March 2018, the Bank of England noted its intention to change the way hurdle rates are calculated in the annual stress test in four ways. This statement provides further specific details on two of these changes.
May 2018
EIOPA launched its third Solvency II based stress test for insurers on 14 May 2018. EIOPA conducts biennial stress tests to help scale the impact on insurance companies of the crystallisation of various economic and non-economic risks. As in previous years, there is no pass/fail hurdle rate in the 2018 exercise but this year’s exercise will be focused on groups. More information on the stress tests and timescales can be found on EIOPA’s website.
April 2018
On Monday 30 April we published PS7/18 ‘Model risk management principles for stress testing’ and PS8/18 ‘Pillar 2: Update to reporting requirements’. Both publications are of interest to banks, building societies and PRA-designated investment firms.
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December 2017
On Thursday 7 December, Anna Sweeney, Director of Insurance, sent a letter to CEOs of participating firms on the 'General Insurance Stress Test 2017 Feedback’. This followed our request in April 2017 to the United Kingdom’s largest general insurers to participate in a stress test exercise (see April 2017 update below). We’d like to thank all insurers that were requested to participate in this exercise for their submission.
On Wednesday 6 December, we published CP25/17 ‘Pillar 2: Update to reporting requirements’ and CP26/17 ‘Model risk management principles for stress testing’. Both consultations are of interest to banks, building societies and PRA-designated investment firms, and close on Tuesday 6 March 2018.
April 2017
On Friday 21 April The PRA published the 2017 stress test scenario for firms not participating in the 2017 concurrent stress test.
General insurance stress test 2017
On Tuesday 11 April the PRA sent a request to the United Kingdom's largest general insurers to provide information about the impact of a range of stress tests on their projected Own Funds, as well as providing additional information on their sectoral exposures to the UK economy.
The General Insurance Stress Test 2017 (GIST 2017) exercise is split into two broad areas of interest:
Section 1: a set of five severe but conceivable scenarios (four natural catastrophe scenarios and one economic downturn scenario consistent with the Banking Stress Test).
Section 2: a capture of exposures that will allow the PRA to better understand the impact of potential losses by various sectors of the economy.
Submission of the completed Excel template by the participating firms is requested by 17:00 on Friday 14 July 2017.
The materials related to the GIST 2017 are listed below:
General Insurance Stress Test 2017 - Scenario Specification, Guidelines and Instructions
General Insurance Stress Test 2017 - Template General Insurance Stress Test 2017 - letter to participating firms (for information)
March 2017
On 27 March 2017, the PRA issued a letter on Stress test model management principles for firms participating in the 2017 concurrent stress test.
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December 2016
On Thursday 15 December EIOPA published its report of the EIOPA insurance stress test. The PRA will take forward the EIOPA recommendations with UK insurers as appropriate.
More information on the stress tests and timescales can be found on EIOPA's website.
Stress testing news and publications
This page was last updated 09 July 2024