Results from the Decision Maker Panel survey 2018 Q4

Together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham, the Bank has developed the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey to help monitor recent developments in the UK economy and to track businesses’ expectations and the uncertainty surrounding them.

Chart A Brexit as a source of uncertainty (a)

Chart A Brexit as a source of uncertainty

Footnotes

Sources: DMP and Bank calculations.

(a) Question: ‘How much has the result of the EU referendum affected the level of uncertainty affecting your business?’. Data for November 2018 are based on only one third of the sample.

Chart B Firms who view Brexit as an important source of uncertainty, by exposure to the EU (a)

Chart B Brexit as a source of uncertainty by exposure to the EU

Footnotes

Sources: DMP and Bank calculations.

(a) Brexit uncertainty question is defined in the footnote to Chart A. Chart shows the percentage of firms who responded ‘Largest current source’ or ‘One of 2 or 3 top sources’. Uncertainty data and information about whether a company exports or imports any goods or how many non-UK EU migrants it employs were collected between August and October 2018. If information about imports, exports, or the share of non-UK EU migrant labour was missing, responses from earlier surveys were used.

Chart C Expected eventual impact of Brexit on sales and employment (a)

Chart C Expected eventual impact of Brexit on sales and employment

Footnotes

Sources: DMP and Bank calculations.

(a) Question: ‘How do you expect the eventual Brexit agreement to affect your sales/employment once the UK has left the EU, compared to what would have been the case had the UK remained a member of the EU?’. A large positive/negative effect corresponds to adding/subtracting 10% or more to/from sales/employment; a small effect is defined as less than 10%. Data are for August to October 2018.

Chart D Expected eventual impact of Brexit on sales by exposure to the EU (a)

Chart D Expected eventual impact of Brexit on sales by exposure to the EU

Footnotes

Sources: DMP and Bank calculations.

(a) Question about the impact of Brexit on sales is defined in the footnote to Chart C. Expected impact of Brexit on sales data and information about whether a company exports or imports any goods or how many non-UK EU migrants it employs were collected between August and October 2018. If information about imports, exports, or the share of non-UK EU migrant labour was missing, responses from earlier surveys were used.

Chart E Average expected and realised nominal sales growth (a)

dmp-box-chart-e

Footnotes

Sources: DMP, ONS and Bank calculations.

(a) Questions about sales refer to the last complete quarter. Realised data for 2018 Q3 and expected data for 2019 Q3 were collected in November and are based on data for one third of the sample only.

This page was last updated 31 January 2023