Overview
This survey forms part of the Bank’s quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers’ understanding of market expectations. The questions involve topics that are widely discussed in the public domain, and never presume any particular policy action. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are not involved in the survey’s design.
Survey respondents originate from a broad set of market participant firms, selected by the Bank based on a number of criteria, including: (i) relevant market activity in UK rates or money markets; (ii) expertise in UK rates markets and/or UK monetary policy; (iii) willingness to participate regularly in the survey and in the Bank’s market intelligence activity; and (iv) membership of one of the Bank’s external market committees.
Please contact MarketParticipantsSurvey@bankofengland.co.uk for queries or for further information.
Survey results
The survey was open from 4–6 September 2024 with responses being received from 78 market participants. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported.footnote [1] For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weightings or probabilities are reported. For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities – the respondent count against each option is reported. For questions that ask respondents to rank a given set of options, a ranking of average assigned positions is reported.
Question 1: Expectations for Bank Rate
1a) What do you see as the most likely level of Bank Rate after the following MPC meetings? (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
19 September 2024 MPC | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 78 |
7 November 2024 MPC | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 78 |
19 December 2024 MPC | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 78 |
6 February 2025 MPC | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 78 |
20 March 2025 MPC | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 78 |
8 May 2025 MPC | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 78 |
19 June 2025 MPC | 3.75 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 78 |
7 August 2025 MPC | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 78 |
One year ahead (September 2025 MPC) | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 78 |
End-2025 Q4 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 77 |
End-2026 Q1 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 75 |
End-2026 Q2 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 75 |
Two years ahead (September 2026) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 75 |
Three years ahead (September 2027) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 73 |
Five years ahead (September 2029) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 72 |
1b) And where do you see the level of Bank Rate at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary (often referred to as the neutral, natural or equilibrium rate)? (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 78 |
1ci) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the September 2024 meeting. Responses should sum to a total of 100%. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
4.50% | 1.3 |
4.75% | 23.7 |
5.00% | 74.6 |
5.25% | 0.3 |
Footnotes
- (a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <3.75% and >6.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question.
1cii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the November 2024 meeting. Responses should sum to a total of 100%. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
4.00% | 0.1 |
4.25% | 2.2 |
4.50% | 19.3 |
4.75% | 65.0 |
5.00% | 13.3 |
5.25% | 0.1 |
Footnotes
- (a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <3.75% and >6.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 75 respondents answered this question.
1ciii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the December 2024 meeting. Responses should sum to a total of 100%. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<4.00% | 0.5 |
4.00% | 2.7 |
4.25% | 9.8 |
4.50% | 30.0 |
4.75% | 48.3 |
5.00% | 8.5 |
5.25% | 0.1 |
Footnotes
- (a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <3.75% and >6.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been aggregated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 74 respondents answered this question.
1di) With reference to your answers to question 1a on most likely levels for Bank Rate, do you see the risks around your expectations at the one-year point as:
Count | |
|---|---|
Skewed more to the upside | 13 |
Broadly balanced | 40 |
Skewed more to the downside | 23 |
1dii) With reference to your answers to question 1a on most likely levels for Bank Rate, do you see the risks around your expectations at the two-year point as:
Count | |
|---|---|
Skewed more to the upside | 16 |
Broadly balanced | 46 |
Skewed more to the downside | 11 |
1diii) With reference to your answers to question 1a on most likely levels for Bank Rate, do you see the risks around your expectations at the three-year point as:
Count | |
|---|---|
Skewed more to the upside | 18 |
Broadly balanced | 45 |
Skewed more to the downside | 10 |
1e) Please weight the following factors (%) in terms of their importance in influencing your expectations for the near-term path for Bank Rate. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
Specified indicators of inflation persistence including measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation | 34.4 |
Headline CPI inflation and alternative measures of inflation (eg, survey-based measures) | 20.4 |
Activity indicators | 13.0 |
The MPC’s projections and observations on the outlook | 14.1 |
Global influences | 15.1 |
Other | 3.0 |
Question 2: Macroeconomic outlook
2a) Please provide the annual rate of CPI inflation – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – that you see as most likely at each of the following time horizons. (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
End-2024 Q3 | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 69 |
End-2024 Q4 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 70 |
End-2025 Q1 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 69 |
End-2025 Q2 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 69 |
One year ahead | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 69 |
Two years ahead | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.45 | 67 |
Three years ahead | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 67 |
Five years ahead | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 66 |
2bi) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation three years ahead. Responses should sum to a total of 100%. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<=1.00% | 2.8 |
1.01%–1.40% | 3.8 |
1.41%–1.80% | 11.2 |
1.81%–2.20% | 37.6 |
2.21%–2.60% | 27.0 |
2.61%–3.00% | 10.7 |
>3.00% | 6.9 |
2bii) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation on average from five years ahead to ten years ahead (ie, analogous to the five-year, five-year forward rate). Responses should sum to a total of 100%. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<=1.00% | 2.6 |
1.01%–1.40% | 3.2 |
1.41%–1.80% | 10.6 |
1.81%–2.20% | 37.9 |
2.21%–2.60% | 27.4 |
2.61%–3.00% | 11.5 |
>3.00% | 6.8 |
2ci) Please rank up to three upside risks in terms of their importance in influencing the balance of risks around the rates of CPI inflation that you see as most likely from two years ahead. (a)
Ranking of average assigned positions | |
|---|---|
Domestic supply of labour | 1 |
Global political/geopolitical developments | 2 |
Domestic demand outlook | 3 |
Global demand/supply imbalances | 4 |
Domestic political developments | 5 |
Productivity trends | 6 |
Global warming and 'greening' | 7 |
Footnotes
- (a) The overall ranking is determined on the basis of a simple average of the individual ranks attributed by respondents to each factor. In cases where respondents have attributed rankings to some but not all factors, the unattributed factors were considered to be ranked behind the attributed factors with an average rank applied in instances of multiple unranked factors. 70 respondents answered this question.
2cii) Please rank up to three downside risks in terms of their importance in influencing the balance of risks around the rates of CPI inflation that you see as most likely from two years ahead. (a)
Ranking of average assigned positions | |
|---|---|
Domestic demand outlook | 1 |
Global demand/supply imbalances | 2 |
Productivity trends | 3 |
Global political/geopolitical developments | 4 |
Domestic supply of labour | 5 |
Domestic political developments | 6 |
Global warming and 'greening' | 7 |
Footnotes
- (a) The overall ranking is determined on the basis of a simple average of the individual ranks attributed by respondents to each factor. In cases where respondents have attributed rankings to some but not all factors, the unattributed factors were considered to be ranked behind the attributed factors with an average rank applied in instances of multiple unranked factors. 67 respondents answered this question.
2d) In the opening remarks to the August MPR press conference Governor Bailey outlined three potential cases under which the persistent element of inflation might ‘decline to a level consistent with inflation being on target on a sustained basis’. He also stated that ‘as policymakers, we can have all three cases in our expectations, with different weights attached’.
With this framework in mind, what weightings would you attach to each of the outlined cases being realised? (a)
Mean weighting (%) | |
|---|---|
The persistence being ‘essentially self-correcting’ with a decline ‘now almost baked in as the shocks to headline inflation unwind’ (more benign case) | 36.2 |
A decline in persistence also requiring restrictive policy to be maintained for longer to ‘open up more of an output gap’ (intermediate case) | 40.3 |
‘A more permanent change to price, wage and margin setting’ requiring ‘more restrictive policy than the first two cases’ (least benign case) | 23.5 |
2e) Please provide the annual rate of UK GDP growth – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – that you see as most likely at each of the following time horizons. (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 68 |
2025 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 68 |
2026 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 65 |
Question 3: Expectations for balance sheet and gilt yields
3a) At its September 2023 meeting the MPC voted to reduce the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the following 12 months to September 2024, to a total of £658 billion. Please provide the annual reduction in the stock of gilts held in the APF, comprising both maturing gilts and gilt sales in initial purchase proceeds terms, that you see as most likely over the following annual review cycles (£ billion). (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
October 2024–September 2025 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 69 |
October 2025–September 2026 | 60 | 80 | 100 | 67 |
October 2026–September 2027 | 31 | 50 | 73 | 67 |
October 2027–September 2028 | 29 | 35 | 60 | 65 |
Footnotes
- (a) Respondents were provided with APF redemptions (as set out in the run-off profile published in Results and usage data) corresponding to each period.
3b) What do you see as the most likely level for the 10-year gilt yield at the following points in the future (%)? (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
End-December 2024 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 65 |
End-June 2025 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 65 |
End-December 2025 | 3.38 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 64 |
Question 4: Expectations for exchange rates
4a) What do you see as the most likely level for GBPUSD one year ahead?
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
1.2925 | 1.3200 | 1.3500 | 62 |
4b) What do you see as the most likely level for EURGBP one year ahead?
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
0.8200 | 0.8400 | 0.8500 | 62 |
Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size – 1) + 1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie, this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported.