Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - November 2024

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 05 December 2024

The November DMP survey was conducted between 8 and 22 November and received 2,255 responses.

Firms reported that their output prices rose by an average annual rate of 3.9% in the three months to November, down 0.1 percentage points from 4.0% in the three months to October. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7% in the three months to November, 0.2 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to October. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to decline by 0.2 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

Perceived CPI inflation was 2.6% in the three months to November, down 0.1 percentage points from 2.7% in the three months to October. Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead rose from 2.6% to 2.7% in the three months to November. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations was unchanged at 2.6%.

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 5.5% in the three months to November, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to October. Expected year-ahead wage growth dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0% on a three-month moving-average basis in November but remained close to its recent average. Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.5 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

A new question in the November survey asked firms about how they expect to respond to the increase in employer National Insurance contributions that was announced in the Budget. Firms were allowed to select more than one option. 59% of firms expect to lower profit margins, 54% expect to raise prices, 54% expect lower employment and 38% expect to pay lower wages than they otherwise would have done.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.