Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2024 H2

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 02 October 2024

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2024 H2 survey, which was conducted between 23 July and 12 August.

55 firms participated in the 2024 H2 survey, representing a 68% response rate.

Key results from 2024 H2 survey

  • Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a higher level of confidence than in 2024 H1.
  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system in both the short-term and medium-term has fallen further.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyber attack remain the most frequently cited risks among participants, with the proportion of those citing geopolitical risk increasing further to its highest level recorded in the survey.
  • The share of survey respondents citing risks associated with an overseas/global downturn increased sharply, to its highest level since 2019 H2, while the shares citing climate risks and inflation risks have fallen further. For the first time in the survey, respondents cited risks associated with IT, for example external vendor issues and disruption of IT infrastructure, as their ‘number one’ risk.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyber attack continue to be considered by a majority of respondents as the most challenging risks to manage, and the most likely to materialise.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey participants reported a higher level of confidence in the UK financial system than in 2024 H1.

  • 40% of respondents judge themselves as completely or very confident (+11 percentage points relative to the 2024 H1 survey).
  • 56% of respondents judge themselves as being fairly confident in the UK financial system (-9 percentage points).
  • 4% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (-2 percentage points).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' confidence in the stability of the UK's financial system over the next 3 years. The series shown is between 2008-2024. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line indicating high confidence with a net percentage balance of 19.1%. Series high: 22.4% in 2021 H2. Series low: -9% in 2009 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event is lower than judged in the previous survey over the short term and medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (unchanged since the 2024 H1 survey).
  • 17% of all respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (-8 percentage points).
  • 46% of all respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (-4 percentage points).
  • 37% of all respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (35%, +12 percentage points) or very low (2%, -1 percentage point).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' perceptions of the probability of a high impact event occurring in 0-12 months. The series shown is between 2008-2024. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high impact event occurring in the short term has decreased over the past 6 months, with a net percentage balance of -11.1% in this survey. Series high: 41.1% in 2019 H2. Series low: -36.1% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term. And also, how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.
  • (b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

  • No respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is very high (-8 percentage points relative to the 2024 H1 survey).
  • 2% of respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is very low (+2 percentage points), and 13% judge that it is low (-2 percentage points).
  • 43% of respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is high (+5 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' perceptions of the probability of a high impact event occurring in 1-3 years. The series shown is between 2008-2024. The columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high impact event occurring in the medium term has decreased over the past 6 months, with a net percentage balance of 13% in 2024 H2. Series high: 43.8%. Series low: -7.6% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, and how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.
  • (b) See footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 27 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] Below is a list of the risks that were most frequently cited by the respondents in the 2024 H2 survey as one of their top five risks (Chart 4):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 93% of respondents, +8 percentage points since the 2024 H1 survey).

2. Cyber attack (80%, +10 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (45%, +1 percentage point).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (33%, +19 percentage points).

5. Climate risk (29%, -7 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (42%, +1 percentage points).

2. Cyber attack (31%, +10 percentage points).

3=. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (5%, -7 percentage points).

3=. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, +3 percentage points).

5=. Inflation risk (4%, -1 percentage points).

5=. IT Risk (4%, +4 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyber attack remain the most frequently cited risks among participants, with the proportion of those citing geopolitical risk increasing further to its highest level recorded in the survey.

The share of survey respondents citing risks associated with an overseas/global downturn increased sharply, to its highest level since 2019 H2, while the shares citing climate risks and inflation risks have fallen further. For the first time in the survey, respondents cited risks associated with IT as their ‘number one’ risk.

  • The two most frequently cited risks – geopolitical risk and cyber attack – were also the most frequently cited in the previous survey. Respondents reported a range of concerns within these two categories, including ongoing conflicts, global elections, and the potential for cyber attacks to impact the whole financial system including banking system infrastructure.
  • The next most cited risks continued to be those associated with a UK economic downturn, at 45% (+1 percentage point since the 2024 H1 survey), though fewer respondents now cite it as their number one risk (5%, -7 percentage points).
  • The proportion of respondents citing climate risk has fallen in recent surveys, and is at 29% (-7 percentage points), the lowest since 2022 H2. Meanwhile the share of respondents citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn jumped to 33% (+19 percentage points), its highest since 2019 H2.
  • The share of respondents citing inflation risk in (a) their top five risks, or (b) as their number one risk continued to decrease to 24% (-17 percentage points) and 4% (-1 percentage points) respectively.
  • There was an uptick in the share of respondents citing risks associated with IT, for example external vendor issues and disruption of IT infrastructure (11%, +9 percentage points), and for the first time in the survey, some cited it as their ‘number one’ risk (4%).

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk between 2008-2024. Geopolitical risk and cyber attack were each cited by at least 80% of respondents in 2024 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk as the most impactful if it were to materialise, between 2008-2024. The top two risks considered most impactful in 2024 H2 are geopolitical risk  (cited by 42% of respondents) and cyber attack (31%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top six ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; see the data appendix for more detail.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

Geopolitical risk and cyber attack are still considered to be most challenging to manage for a majority of firms.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1=. Geopolitical risk (71% of respondents, +1 percentage points since the 2024 H1 survey).

1=. Cyber attack (71%, +12 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (22%, +12 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (16%, -2 percentage points).

5. Climate risk (15%, -1 percentage points).

6. IT risk (11%, +11 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents citing each risk as the most challenging to manage for their firms, between 2008-2024. Geopolitical risk and cyber risk (both mentioned by 71% of respondents) are considered the most challenging to manage by far more respondents than the following four risks - Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn(22%),risks associated with a UK economic downturn (16%), climate risk(15%), and IT risk (11%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top six categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Key risks most likely to materialise

Respondents were asked to indicate which three of the five risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (75% of respondents, + 8 percentage points since the 2024 H1 survey).

2. Cyber attack (60%, +20 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (29%, -8 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (22%, +10 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

This is a treemap chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey citing each risk as most probable to materialise. Geopolitical risk (cited by 75% of respondents), cyber-attack (60%) and risks associated with a UK economic downturn (29%) are considered most likely to occur by respondents in this survey.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they thought were most likely to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyber attack remain the most likely to materialise according to respondents, with a significant increase in those citing a cyber attack since 2024 H1.
  • The likelihood of risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn has also grown since the 2024 H1 survey.
  • Concerns around UK political risk have decreased since the previous survey to 4%, with a 13 percentage point decline in respondents citing this as one of the most likely risks to materialise since 2024 H1.

Data appendix

  • Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b)

    2019 H1

    2019 H2

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (c)

    Very high

    6

    15

    3

    1

    14

    6

    2

    0

    0

    High

    46

    57

    19

    30

    48

    46

    36

    24

    17

    Medium

    35

    21

    48

    46

    35

    33

    32

    50

    46

    Low

    12

    6

    24

    21

    3

    14

    27

    23

    35

    Very low

    1

    0

    5

    1

    0

    1

    4

    3

    2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (c)

    Very high

    9

    6

    9

    9

    17

    11

    7

    8

    0

    High

    42

    57

    43

    37

    55

    56

    50

    38

    43

    Medium

    38

    32

    40

    53

    26

    28

    34

    39

    43

    Low

    10

    4

    9

    1

    2

    6

    9

    15

    13

    Very low

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

    Increased

    44

    68

    7

    39

    83

    51

    23

    35

    26

    Unchanged

    51

    31

    57

    51

    15

    35

    59

    52

    57

    Decreased

    5

    1

    36

    10

    2

    14

    18

    14

    17

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

    Increased

    26

    43

    22

    33

    69

    42

    27

    32

    24

    Unchanged

    73

    56

    66

    61

    29

    51

    70

    65

    67

    Decreased

    1

    1

    12

    6

    2

    7

    4

    3

    9

    Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (e)

    Complete confidence

    1

    0

    0

    1

    0

    1

    2

    0

    2

    Very confident

    30

    33

    50

    44

    42

    24

    29

    29

    38

    Fairly confident

    63

    60

    45

    51

    55

    69

    63

    65

    56

    Not very confident

    6

    7

    5

    3

    3

    6

    7

    6

    4

    No confidence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in confidence over the past six months (f)

    Increased

    2

    4

    22

    9

    0

    7

    7

    5

    16

    Unchanged

    77

    73

    72

    81

    71

    50

    80

    80

    73

    Decreased

    21

    24

    5

    10

    29

    43

    13

    15

    11

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (d) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (e) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
    • (f) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.
  • Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)

    2019 H1

    2019 H2

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    62

    58

    59

    63

    72

    79

    66

    85

    93

    Cyber attack

    60

    61

    74

    79

    74

    75

    80

    70

    80

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    23

    23

    12

    14

    20

    32

    52

    44

    45

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    38

    38

    14

    6

    20

    22

    16

    14

    33

    Climate risk

    4

    15

    33

    24

    23

    39

    39

    36

    29

    Inflation risk

    6

    2

    33

    63

    72

    53

    57

    41

    24

    Household/corporate credit risk

    6

    5

    7

    9

    8

    10

    7

    20

    24

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    27

    31

    31

    24

    17

    13

    21

    14

    22

    Other

    7

    4

    21

    18

    23

    19

    14

    11

    22

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    7

    14

    15

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    5

    4

    2

    0

    0

    1

    7

    12

    15

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    19

    17

    21

    9

    6

    17

    11

    15

    13

    IT risk

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    5

    2

    11

    Operational risk

    4

    6

    21

    27

    20

    21

    16

    12

    11

    Risk of property price falls

    14

    11

    12

    13

    3

    10

    11

    11

    7

    UK political risk

    93

    96

    40

    26

    34

    28

    16

    21

    7

    Sovereign risk

    11

    0

    0

    1

    2

    4

    2

    3

    7

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    12

    14

    7

    4

    6

    6

    14

    17

    5

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    3

    5

    1

    0

    3

    4

    Funding risk

    5

    4

    0

    3

    2

    7

    9

    8

    4

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    4

    4

    2

    1

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    5

    0

    5

    11

    17

    8

    5

    3

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    14

    10

    9

    4

    5

    7

    9

    6

    2

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    3

    0

    3

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    2

    12

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    0

    0

    57

    51

    31

    8

    5

    3

    0

    Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

    Geopolitical risk

    5

    5

    2

    13

    17

    28

    23

    41

    42

    Cyber attack

    14

    6

    19

    34

    17

    10

    27

    21

    31

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    1

    1

    2

    6

    8

    14

    16

    12

    5

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    2

    5

    2

    0

    3

    4

    0

    2

    5

    Inflation risk

    1

    0

    12

    23

    38

    25

    14

    5

    4

    IT risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4

    Household/corporate credit risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    3

    0

    5

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    0

    2

    1

    0

    0

    2

    2

    2

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    2

    0

    3

    1

    3

    0

    5

    2

    2

    Operational risk

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    5

    2

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    0

    0

    3

    1

    3

    1

    0

    2

    2

    Funding risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1

    2

    2

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Other

    0

    0

    0

    3

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    3

    2

    0

    0

    Sovereign risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    0

    0

    2

    3

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    UK political risk

    69

    79

    10

    1

    2

    1

    0

    3

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    1

    2

    2

    1

    3

    1

    4

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    0

    0

    38

    11

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Climate risk

    1

    1

    3

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
    • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
    • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)

    2019 H1

    2019 H2

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    Cyber attack

    52

    48

    58

    65

    56

    50

    70

    59

    71

    Geopolitical risk

    35

    32

    32

    40

    48

    49

    46

    70

    71

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    14

    21

    4

    4

    6

    11

    11

    10

    22

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    6

    14

    7

    4

    13

    24

    29

    18

    16

    Climate risk

    3

    4

    21

    15

    13

    15

    20

    16

    15

    IT risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    5

    0

    11

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    10

    12

    12

    10

    11

    3

    5

    3

    11

    Other

    6

    1

    16

    13

    6

    13

    5

    7

    11

    Inflation risk

    1

    3

    23

    46

    61

    40

    41

    16

    9

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    4

    4

    2

    0

    0

    1

    7

    10

    9

    Household/corporate credit risk

    0

    3

    7

    4

    5

    7

    2

    16

    7

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    11

    8

    16

    6

    5

    11

    4

    7

    7

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    10

    5

    Operational risk

    0

    0

    9

    18

    11

    11

    7

    8

    5

    UK political risk

    82

    75

    25

    10

    14

    11

    7

    7

    4

    Sovereign risk

    8

    0

    0

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    8

    8

    5

    4

    5

    0

    9

    8

    4

    Risk of property price falls

    6

    1

    4

    3

    0

    6

    2

    8

    2

    Funding risk

    3

    1

    0

    1

    2

    6

    9

    2

    2

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    1

    3

    0

    0

    3

    2

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    1

    0

    4

    4

    11

    3

    4

    2

    2

    Pandemic risk

    0

    0

    40

    29

    9

    4

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    1

    3

    4

    4

    3

    3

    4

    3

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)

    12

    13

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    81

    84

    58

    70

    65

    72

    56

    64

    55

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks, they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    54

    54

    41

    67

    75

    Cyber attack

    37

    38

    46

    40

    60

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    20

    25

    39

    37

    29

    Risks associated with an overseas economic downturn

    18

    13

    7

    10

    22

    Inflation risk

    63

    45

    52

    20

    15

    Climate risk

    9

    11

    16

    15

    15

    Household/corporate credit risk

    5

    8

    4

    12

    15

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    6

    3

    11

    8

    15

    Operational risk

    6

    11

    11

    10

    11

    Other

    15

    13

    4

    3

    9

    Risk around regulation/taxes

    2

    7

    4

    10

    5

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    5

    12

    5

    UK political risk

    18

    8

    9

    17

    4

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    1

    4

    7

    4

    Risk of property price falls

    2

    8

    9

    5

    4

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    17

    6

    4

    2

    2

    Sovereign risk

    2

    1

    2

    2

    2

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    3

    0

    0

    2

    IT Risk

    0

    0

    5

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    2

    1

    0

    7

    0

    Funding risk

    2

    6

    9

    3

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy

    5

    1

    7

    3

    0

    Pandemic risk

    2

    0

    4

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    65

    72

    56

    66

    55

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks, they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks was most probable to materialise. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  1. The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

  2. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

  3. These summary categories are adjusted over time in order to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

  4. This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.