Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - July 2025

The July DMP survey was conducted between 4 and 18 July and received 2,107 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6% in the three months to July. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

In the three months to July, firms reported that their year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than they had reported in the three months to June, suggesting that they expected their output price inflation to increase by 0.1 percentage points over the next year.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2% in the three months to July, although there was a decrease of 0.1 percentage points in the single month data. The corresponding measure for three-years ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to July, which has been unchanged since the three months to January. 

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.7% in the three months to July, 0.1 percentage points higher than in the three months to June. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged in July at 3.6% on a three-month moving-average basis. The single month figure has remained flat since May at 3.6%. This implies that firms expected their wage growth to decline by 1.1 percentage points over the next 12 months, based on these three-month averages.

Realised annual employment growth was -0.1% in the three months to July, 0.4 percentage points lower than in the three months June. Expectations for employment growth over the next year have also weakened, falling by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5% in the three months to July. 

Firms were asked about the potential impacts that recent changes to US trade policy would have on their sales, prices and investment over the next year. Across all questions on sales, prices and investment, over two-thirds of firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their firms. In July, 24% of firms expected sales to be lower in the year ahead as a result of US trade policy changes and 20% of firms expected that their capital expenditures would be lower. On prices, 12% of firms expected that their average prices would be lower, while 13% expected that their prices would be higher as a result of the tariff changes. 

Firms were also asked about US trade policy as a source of uncertainty for their businesses. US trade policy was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for 10% of businesses, falling 4 percentage points since June. Overall uncertainty declined by one percentage point to 55% in the three months to July, remaining below earlier peaks but above the 2024 average of 50%.